After months of childish back-and-forth posturing between Tehran and Washington, Iran’s deputy Foreign Minister and chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, took to twitter on October 27th to announce the country’s decision to re-enter negotiations.
For months the Iranian government has stood firm in its stance: the Biden administration must lift sanctions as a gesture of “goodwill” to resume negotiations. So what has changed?
Simply two words: economic devastation. With the Iranian economy up in flames, the government has been forced to reconsider negotiations in a hail-mary effort to push the United States to lift sanctions and release 10 billion dollars of Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks. According to the IMF, while Iran's GDP has plummeted since the United States’ exit from the JCPOA, the inflation rate has sky-rocketed. Iranians are falling under the poverty line everyday, sick and tired of government decisions that have pushed the country towards mystery. Weighed down by a crippling economy and increasing prices of consumer goods, they are ready to say enough is enough.
The Iran-Hawks of Washington have created an echo-chamber of militancy, arguing that in order to enact regime change and thereby minimize the threat of a nuclearized Iran, an explicit show of force is necessary. In the infamous words of John Bolton, “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran”.
Yet, the answer to the problem is much more simple and less costly to the United States. In fact, it’s been in front of us the whole time: sanction relief through a re-negotiation of the nuclear agreement.
Now, the prospect of a new nuclear agreement with sanction relief may just become the catalyst for formative regime change to occur in the coming years.
How? Regime change in 1979 was made possible by numerous factors - one of which being the massive reform efforts made by the Pahlavi dynasty throughout the century. The rapid transformation of Iranian society, including the strong relationship the Pahlavi’s made with the West, birthed an Iranian citizenry that had high expectations of the State. When the authoritarian state no longer met those expectations, a revolutionary coalition emerged.
As Iran stands today, the burden of maximum-pressure sanctions are borne by the citizens, the poorer you are, the more you suffer. Life for many Iranians is mere subsistence. Upon lifting sanctions in accordance with a new nuclear agreement, the United States will reintroduce the prospect of a better life within the Iranian psyche. With a new nuclear deal, Iranians will expect a higher standard of living, and when those expectations aren’t met, a new revolutionary coalition will arise.
Regime change in Iran will not be quick, nor will it be without it’s caveats. However in the event of regime change, one thing is certain: the Islamic Republic will fall. The vast majority of Iranians do not support an Islamic State and will not stand for the re-invention of one. Therefore, it is plausible to assume that the next Iranian leader will either be a member of the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp), or a prominent figure within the dissent movement.
Irrespective of the uncertainty regarding future Iranian leadership, the economic devastation that has incited collective dissatisfaction with the current Iranian regime must prompt a new regime to re-imagine both foreign and domestic policy, or risk yet another revolution. It is here that the United States must employ both soft and hard power tactics to ensure the new leaderships’ cooperation in maintaining international security, including the complete termination of Iran’s nuclear proliferation ambitions.
The Iranian people are tired and ready to fight for change, however with the burden of sanctions borne by the people, they can’t reach the level of capability nor resolve to create a strong coalition and ensure formative regime change. The western world must capitalize off of the growing anti-regime sentiments brewing within the country, empowering the Iranian people.
Sanction relief will give Iranians the capabilities to protest for regime change, and the expectation of improved standards of living with the onset of nuclear negotiations will only strengthen resolve for the regime-change movement. If the United States re-enters negotiations with Iran quickly, sanction relief will allow the Iranian people to begin the fight against the State.
Moments like this are few and far between. A new nuclear deal presents a win-win situation for the United States. In appearing to give the Iranian regime what they want, we not only gain momentary assurance of a nuclear-free Iran, but the chance to empower a revolutionary movement that might just give way to a more compliant Iran.
The United States has the ability to strengthen Iranian capability and resolve against the regime through sanction-relief. They must do so, or risk the continuation of the non-cooperative Islamic Republic.
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